导游指南：美国在阿富汗发起“反恐战争”20年后，投入了大量资源支持阿富汗政府。
美国加速撤军仅一个多月，阿富汗政府和军队就在塔利班的凌厉攻势下全面溃散，出乎了美国和西方的最悲观估计。阿富汗代理内政部长阿卜杜勒·萨塔尔·米尔扎夸勒15日宣布，喀布尔将把权力移交给“过渡政府”，另据媒体称，阿总统加尼已经离开阿富汗。同一天，塔利班发言人宣布他们的部队已经开进喀布尔。 阿富汗政府的使命看来走到了尽头，阿富汗局势翻开新一页。观察者网就此采访巴基斯坦巴中学会执行主任穆斯塔法·海德尔·赛义德，就阿富汗周边局势、未来发展等方面发表看法。穆斯塔法·海德尔·赛义德接受观察者网采访
【采访/观察者网 周远方、刘倩藜】
观察者网：阿富汗局势出现快速变化，有媒体分析认为，这会给巴基斯坦经济带来一些负面影响，包括难民冲击和潜在恐袭对经济环境的影响，但实际上这次塔利班的政权更迭过程比外界预测的和平，您怎么看待局势变化对地区安全和经济可能带来的影响？
穆斯塔法：我认为对当前局势而言，最重要的是阿富汗国内的安全、稳定以及与周边国家保持友好关系。只要这些方面有保障，我们就可以认为这是一个和平、平稳的权力交接过程，无论在阿富汗的境内还是境外，人的生命能够得到尊重，人民的安全能够得到保障，我想这应该是最重要的。
其次，是经济和商业利益。到目前为止，阿富汗塔利班始终表示欢迎“一带一路”倡议和中国在该地区的投资。
我认为，只要阿富汗塔利班能做到以上这几点，目前来看，他们上台执政就不会对地区局势产生负面影响。
当然，我们必须观察阿富汗塔利班对中国、巴基斯坦等周边国家的承诺是否得到遵守。因为我们不希望阿富汗为一些危害周边国家的组织提供收容和庇护，比如如你所知，过去一些“东突”恐怖分子和一些反巴基斯坦分子曾经藏匿在阿富汗。只要这样的事情不再发生，我们认为，阿富汗地区局势能够向和平、稳定的方向继续发展。
阿富汗地图
观察者网：您是否认为阿富汗局势的变化会与巴基斯坦的安全局势产生联动？
穆斯塔法：巴基斯坦在过去一直都是接收难民的“模范生”。在80年代苏联入侵阿富汗时，巴基斯坦就收容了数百万流离失所的阿富汗难民。巴基斯坦是唯一一个接收了这么多阿富汗难民的国家。所以无论在阿富汗发生什么，最终肯定会对巴基斯坦产生一些影响。如果说巴基斯坦不会受到任何影响，那肯定是不对的，因为在我们那么长的边境上，经常会有双方的人员往来。（巴基斯坦与阿富汗的边境线长达2430公里——观察者网注）
巴基斯坦认为，阿富汗的政府应该能够代表阿富汗人民；任何上台执政的政府，只要得到阿富汗人民理解和支持，巴基斯坦就会支持。
同时，巴基斯坦也非常清楚自己的核心利益。我们不希望阿富汗局势被一些有敌意国家利用，在该地区制造不稳定因素。巴基斯坦和中国在阿富汗有一些共同利益，因此我们两国之间一直保持着密切的协调与合作。“中巴经济走廊”就是中巴两国共同利益的一个具体体现。中国新疆对“一带一路”倡议而言非常重要，假如新疆受到来自阿富汗局势的一些负面影响，这也会影响巴基斯坦的利益。
中巴经济走廊
第二，中巴两国面临共同的恐怖主义威胁。中国和巴基斯坦过去都面对过恐怖主义威胁，我们都希望通过与阿富汗塔利班合作，来解决这一问题，确保未来不再有这样的事情发生。
第三，交通要冲。阿富汗与伊朗和许多中亚国家接壤，亚洲通往欧洲的陆上交通线也可以取道阿富汗。特别是瓦罕走廊，在商业和战略上都至关重要。打通这条路线是一个长久以来的梦想，阿富汗可以成为这条路线的一部分，巴基斯坦、中国、阿富汗在此有共同利益。如果三方能够有良好的合作，这些共同利益是可以实现的。然而，我们也认为，美国背叛了阿富汗人民。
观察者网：美国进入阿富汗即将满20周年，在这20年中，美国没有为阿富汗人民和周边地区带来和平，更不用说经济发展，您认为主要原因是什么？追求地区和平和发展是不是美国进入阿富汗的初心？
穆斯塔法：美国为了入侵阿富汗，花费了数万亿美元。如果这数万亿美元被投入发展教育、建设大学和医疗，今天的阿富汗将是一个全新的国家。现在这数万亿美元被用于军事行动，使用暴力扶持一个强加于阿富汗人民的政权。
（据美国布朗大学“战争成本项目”（Costs of War）详细统计，从2001年开始到2021年4月，美国在阿富汗战争中共投入2.261万亿美元，包括国防部用于海外应急行动的9,330亿美元；国防部战争基本预算中另外增加的4,430亿美元；用于照顾阿富汗战争退伍军人的2,960亿美元，以及来自国务院额外的590亿美元。另外，还有5,300亿美元用于支付过去20年战争债务利息。观察者网注。）
图片来源：“战争成本项目”
美国入侵阿富汗，本来是为了消灭塔利班，清除和抓捕美国所谓在阿富汗的“恐怖主义领导人”。但今天我们看到，美国又与它过去要清除的所谓“恐怖分子”达成了协议，这再一次彰显了美国外交的双重标准：根据他们的政治利益需要，一些国家和人民有时可以被认定为“恐怖分子”；同样因为政治利益需要，同一群“恐怖分子”又可以摇身一变，成为国际政治中的合法参与者。
现在，我们通过（阿富汗局势）这个例子，看到他们曾称呼（阿富汗塔利班）为“恐怖分子”是一种诽谤。分发“恐怖分子”的标签并不是基于任何原则性，而只是基于政治需要，这是关键所在。
还有一个例子，特朗普政府的第二任国务卿蓬佩奥，曾将“东突”恐怖组织从美国的恐怖组织黑名单上移除。即使它实际上就是一个恐怖组织，仅仅因为它是反对中国的，符合美国的政治利益和战略利益，美国就把它从黑名单上删除了。所以说，美国在该地区的政治（行动）没有任何原则性，而是基于选择性的、狭隘的政治利益。
我还可以做一个比较，苏联在1989年曾支持纳吉布拉政府，当时美国和巴基斯坦支持阿富汗塔利班夺取政权。我们当时花了整整3年时间，才推翻纳吉布拉政府。而今天的这个阿富汗政府的垮台，甚至3个月都不到，这又有了一个比较。
这次垮台为什么这么快？因为没有任何阻力，正如你所说的，这是“和平”的交接，我们也可以从媒体上看到，没有任何抵抗。当然也有一些暴力事件，但总体来说，没有什么战斗。我们没有看到美国所承诺要建立的体系，还承诺要为阿富汗空军提供训练、加强军队实力，这些我们都没看到。
我希望阿富汗能够翻开新的一页，一个由阿富汗人民所推动、拥有和主导的阿富汗政府能够成立。我认为，只要阿富汗人民满意了，中国和巴基斯坦不会对阿富汗由哪个政府执政有特别倾向。我们将携手推进中巴经济走廊建设，打造互联互通和双赢合作。
观察者网：近期我们采访的一位在阿富汗的中国商人认为，在阿富汗当地所见的局势并没有外界形容的那么紧张，阿富汗需要的还是大量的基础工业设施，特别是电力和交通基础设施，近年来，周边国家也对阿富汗进行了一些援建，巴基斯坦是否乐见地区国家和人民参与当地的和平发展和经济建设？
穆斯塔法：巴基斯坦是区域经济发展的重要支持者。在“一带一路”倡议框架下，巴基斯坦自身正在推进大规模的经济建设。我们正在建设一些经济特区、道路和电力项目。对巴基斯坦来说，当务之急是与周边国家建立良好的商业、贸易和市场准入关系，包括但不限于中国、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡，当然包括阿富汗和伊朗。
我认为阿富汗可以是巴基斯坦的一个很好的贸易伙伴，阿富汗也可以是一个（通往其他地区）的大门。无论阿富汗方面希望采取何种经济发展模式，巴基斯坦都支持。我们将阿富汗视为合作伙伴，因为阿富汗人民需要工作，需要经济增长，需要商业机会和就业机会。只有在阿富汗经济复苏的情况下，以上这些才能实现。巴基斯坦正处在一个可以帮助阿富汗发展的位置上，我认为这很好。
同时，我认为还有一点非常重要，就是这种新的格局（dispensation）不会成为某些国家的掩蔽所，特别是那些试图在阿富汗和巴基斯坦之间制造不和的国家，那些企图干涉巴基斯坦内政的国家。我们想要地区的和平与稳定，一个和平的阿富汗，就会是一个成功的巴基斯坦；一个成功的阿富汗，就会是巴基斯坦的成功。
现在是阿富汗进行经济革命的时候了，经济建设应当是前进的方向，否则，我们会看到许多混乱局势带来的不确定性，基础设施会因为政府的更迭而缺失。未来的根本出路在于经济发展和增长。
（翻页查看英文版）
Guancha: Thank you for taking your time to have the interview with us. I would like to ask you several questions regarding the situation in Afghanistan and its impact. Regarding the rapid changes in the country, some media says that it will affect the economy in Pakistan negatively. A possible influx of refugees and potential terrorist attack could dampen the economy. But in fact, the transfer of power has been very peaceful. What impact do you think the situation would bring to the regional security and economy.
Mustafa: I think that the most important things are stability, internal security, and friendly relations with the neighboring countries. As long as that is there, I think that a friendly and peaceful transition of power where everyone is alive, where the human lives are given priority, where the people's security is given priority, both inside Afghanistan and outside Afghanistan. I think that should be on the top of the list. After that, secondary is economy and commerce. And so far, the Taliban has welcomed the Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese investment in the region. I think that as long as these ingredients are there, this is no negative effect in the region. As of now, however, we also have to see that the commitments which the Afghan Taliban had made to China, to Pakistan, to neighboring countries, a gap, because we do not want Afghanistan to give refuge to some organizations which are against the neighboring countries. As you know, that in the past there have been some anti- Pakistan elements in Afghanistan.
So as long as such things are not repeated again, we think that we can move forward peacefully in regard to Afghanistan and the region can still continue to move forward.
Guancha:What about Pakistan, specifically? Will the security situation of Afghanistan affect the local situation in Pakistan?
Mustafa:Pakistan has been the model host to refugees in the past. When the soviet invasion took place in the late 80s, early 90s, Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees who were displaced from their homes in Afghanistan. We were the only country that hosted so many refugees from Afghanistan. Whatever happens in Afghanistan will, certainly, at the end of the day, have some effect on Pakistan. It would be wrong to say that Pakistan remains unaffected because we neighbour with them. On our border, a lot of the time, people come and go. Pakistan believes that the government in Afghanistan should be representative of the Afghan people. And the government should have support of the people of Afghanistan. And Pakistan will support no matter which government comes into power as long as the people who understand that happy.
But Pakistan is also very clear on its core interests. We do not want Afghanistan to be used by hostile countries to create instability in the region. We, Pakistan and China have some shared interests in Afghanistan. And that's why there's been close coordination and close cooperation between both the countries. Some examples of the shared interests are the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Now, the CEPC is shared interest of China and Pakistan, because if Xinjiang is negatively affected from Afghanistan, that affects Pakistan. Because Xinjiang is also very important for the Belt and Road initiative. Secondly, Pakistan and China have a shared threat of terrorism. China has also experienced terrorism in the past. So has Pakistan. In Afghanistan, we have a shared challenge of terrorism, which we want to work with the Taliban to address to make sure that there is no a such thing in the future. Number three, connectivity. Afghanistan have borders with a lot of central Asian countries, and also eventually with Iran. The route to Europe can also be through Afghanistan. So that for connectivity, for the Wakhan Corridor, which is very important commercially and strategically. That the dream of connectivity is there, and Afghanistan can be a part of that. So we have some shared interests there. And these shared interests can be achieved. If there is good trilateral cooperation, in Afghanistan. However, we also believe that, the United States has betrayed the people of Afghanistan.
Guancha:Talking about the U.S., it entered Afghanistan 20 years ago and throughout the years, it has not brought peace to either people of Afghanistan or neighboring countries and regions, let alone economic development. Why is that? Isn't the pursuit of regional peace and development the initial aim of the U.S. by entering Afghanistan?
Mustafa: You see, the United States has spent trillions of dollars, trillions of others on the invasion of Afghanistan. If those trillions of dollars had been spend on education, universities, health care, Afghanistan today would be a new country. It would be a very good one. But those billions of dollars was spent on military, on violence, and on imposing regime on the Afghan people. As you know very well, the US invaded Afghanistan to remove the Taliban, to remove and to catch the terrorist leaders in Afghanistan.
But today, the United States has done a deal with the same so-called “terrorists” that it removed before. We see that the U.S. diplomacy has double standards. Sometimes when it suits them, some countries and people can become terrorists. But then when it suits their political interests, then those same terrorists can become a legitimate actor in international politics.
We see through this example that casting the aspersion of terrorist, the label of terrorists, is not based on principle, but it is based on politics. That is the key. You can take another example, madam. Mr.Pompei, the second foreign secretary of the US in the previous government led by trump, removed ETIM from the terrorist blacklist. And even though it is a terrorist organization, because it is anti-China, they were removed from the blacklist. Because it supports us political strategic interests. We see that the U.S. politics in the region is not based on principles, and on merit is based on selective, narrow political interests.
And you can see from a comparison I would like to make, if you allow. When the Soviet-backed government in 1989, under the leadership of President Najibullah, was there, it took 3 years for it to fall. At that time the Afghan Taliban was called the “mujahadeen” , and they were supported by Pakistan and United States. But at that time that government took 3 years to fall. But this government, it did not even take 3 months to fall.
So there is a comparison. And this time, the reason why it is so fast was because there was no resistance. We can see on the media that as you very right, he said it was peaceful, because there was no resistance. Predominantly, there was some violent incidents, but overall, there was no fight. We see that the institutions which had been promised to be built by the United States were not there. The capacity was not there. The training (was not there). Afghan army had an air force. I did not see any (improvement) of that air force. I hope that we can see and turn a chapter, a turn a new leaf in Afghanistan, a country which is driven by people of Afghanistan, which is owned by the people of Afghanistan, and which is led by the people of Afghanistan. As long as the people of Afghanistan are happy, I think that China and Pakistan have no favorites in Afghanistan. We will cooperate to take forward connectivity, see back, and women cooperation.
Guancha：Recently, we have interviewed a Chinese businessman in Afghanistan. He told us that the situation in Afghanistan is not as tense as described by the outside world. What Afghanistan still needs is a huge number of basic industry facilities, especially electricity and transportation infrastructure. We know, in recent years, some neighboring countries have lend help to Afghanistan for recovery and reconstruction. In your opinion, is Pakistan happy to see regional countries and people taking the lead in peaceful development and economic development of the region or not.
Mustafa: Pakistan is a big proponent of economic development. Pakistan itself is undergoing massive economic development, particularly in the case of the Belt and Road initiative. We are developing special economic zones, roads and power projects. For Pakistan, it is imperative that it has good economic relationship of commerce, trade and market access of neighboring countries, including but not limited to China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan, and Iran.
I think that Afghanistan can be a very good partner for trade, and Afghanistan also can be a gate. Pakistan supports any economic development that I understand which one to take. In fact, I see a partner in Afghanistan, because people of Afghanistan, they need jobs, economic growth, business opportunities and employment opportunities . And that can only happen if we try to revive the economy. Pakistan is in a position where it can do this. It can assist the one is done. So I think that's very good. And also, I think what is important is that this new dispensation will not have safe havens of other countries, other countries which were trying to so discord between Afghanistan and Pakistan, countries which have interfered in Pakistan's internal affairs. And, we want peace and stability and a peaceful Afghanistan is a successful Pakistan. A successful Afghanistan is Pakistan's success. Economy is the way forward. Right now is the time for an economic revolution in Pakistan. Because otherwise, we see that a lot of the basic amenities are missing because of the change in government. There is a lot of uncertainty in chaos. We feel that the way forward lies in economy and economic growth.
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